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Perspective: The COVID-19 Stimulus Negotiations

Last updated on March 26, 2020

The Jay Doherty Podcast Episode 128

The show notes below appeared (in more context) on Episode 128 The Jay Doherty Podcast

NOTE: Lots of information has changed since the recording of this audio!

COVID-19 Coronavirus

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO STAY INSIDE AND TO NOT SPREAD THE VIRUS!

Also, a compelling case to wash your hands can be found in The Atlantic here

NUMBERS UPDATE

THE CAUSE OF — AND SOLUTION TO…

The source of the problem continues to be the problem in many ways… but they have also maintained their halfway gotten-back-together act in some ways as well. 

In an article published in The Federalist yesterday, which I know happens to be incredibly biased to the right, Helen Raleigh, who writes as a Senior Contributor — and also happens to be a Chinese immigrant — shed light on a greatly unspoken timeline by going through how and when China knew about this virus in the fall of last year but when Chinese doctors went to inform their own government about what they’d found, a SARS-like virus, they were reprimanded by Wuhan police for “spreading rumors”. (4th Paragraph)

There are lots of articles that give this timeline; I just thought the subjectivity that Helen Raleigh provided as a Chinese immigrant was unique… and most of the data reporting came from The South China Morning Post

Moving along in the more recent (but still distant) days of the beginning of this virus, China actually acknowledged its existence internally as being something that may have spread from a fish market, as described in a separate timeline written by Forbes. (2nd to last; also come back after reading Jan. 1 timeline)

Now, this is believed  to be the cause of the virus; there are many theories as to where this thing actually originated, but the United States CDC, seems to be going along with the idea that this did indeed come from an animal market in China, even though some Trump Senate allies seem to have other, disconcerting justification

Take Senator John Cornyn who said this about the virus originating from China… CORNYN 1.

Although, according to The Guardian, who is getting their information from the potentially mendacious Chinese government, China has defeated the COVID-19 virus; their numbers are dropping rapidly but they are still the country with the most cases; about 20,000 more than Italy, which trails them… so I think “defeat” is much too strong of a word… what they are referring to is the fact that China hasn’t seen any new cases in recent days, which is no sign of victory, even marginal. The only victory I would accept is this virus being totally cured and wiped off of the planet OR a vaccine to treat the virus efficaciously… both of which are either in the future or in a utopia… anyway… (1st para).

AMERICA TAKES MORE ECONOMIC HITS…

Let’s pick up from last week… so last week, I talked about some studies….

  • The International Labour Organization, which is an agency of the UN, put out an assessment saying that 25 million jobs could be lost in a worst-case COVID-19 reality. 
  • Even in the week we are in right now, it is said that 2 million jobs will be lost as a result of Coronavirus… according to The Balance, unemployment was already pretty bleak within the first quarter of this year, jumping from 147,000 unemployed to a whopping 273,000 right now
  • Everyone is fighting but the crisis of this outbreak motivates them to actually pass something efficiently, but of course that failed. Of course, the lead Republican actor in Congress right now is Mitch McConell… the lead Democrat being Nancy Pelosi… and McConell is steering the ship when it comes to proposals… in fact the government’s goal was to get this bill to pass last night, Friday 3/20, so they could sign it into law the following Monday (yesterday) to, at least try to stop the disaster this disease is going to cause (fourth para).
    • Mitch McConell said the senate is at “warp speed” trying to fix this disaster out… here is me reacting to him using that phrase last week… TJDP 1
    • That reaction still stands. If you have not listened to that episode, you can go to jay-doherty.com/127 for episode 127 or listen in your favorite podcast directory

Moving towards today… we are seeing this stimulus package push through in its “warp speed” development through The Senate… and the mismanagement of this thing by both sides is just horrifyingly remarkable.

THE REPUBLICAN NEGOTIATION TACTICS

Over the weekend, Leg. Affairs Republicans from The White House have been meeting with Senior Democrats and over the weekend and yesterday (Monday, Mar. 23), Democrats, who ultimately have control over the future of this bill, as Nancy Pelosi’s signature dictates whether or not The President will be able to sign it into law.

Before we get more into the characters in this fine story, let’s go over what the bill being proposed by President Trump’s Administration; it is a $1 Trillion package and it is more or less partitioned into four separate cash allocations, according to The U.S. Treasury.

In Trump’s plan there would be:

  • $500 Billion for cash payments to taxpayers 
    • up to $1200 for adults making under $75,000, and for couples that make less than $150,000 per year, $500 for each child who fits under those same circumstances
  • $300 Billion For small businesses
    • Less than 500 employees
  • $50 Billion in loans for airline industry
  • $150 Billion for other sectors

THE DEMOCRAT NEGOTIATION TACTICS

These numbers — and the semantics of the bill relating to these numbers — is what Congress has been fighting over for the past couple of days but the reality is that, as soon as this bill is signed, people start getting checks, regardless of whether or not Democrats or Republicans agree with one another, the interpersonal economy of this nation is jolted as a result of some stimulus package being passed… and Washington can often lose sight of the fact that there are people literally struggling to put food on the table because of this virus, and in terms of government intervention, that they (meaning Washington) is the only entity that can do anything about it. 

Which is why America, as a nation, as represented by trending Twitter hashtags is pretty angry at The Democratic Party right now, simply because people who fit in the brackets of this COVID deal, have $’s in their eyes 🙂

Going into the official trading week was when anticipation was high because everyone would, in theory, be going back to work or being laid off for work, which would be a nifty point of entry for this stimulus package, but Democrats, were stubborn about this bill… and the execution of it, which really hurt future’s markets, as CNN’s Phil Mattingly writes

The calculation is essentially this: Democrats wanted significant revisions that had been rejected the night prior. Voting down a procedural motion on a Sunday hurt futures markets and cause some Monday morning market issues, but it can quickly be overcome with a final deal. Sunday was the time to make the play to force changes. The window on this is short, however, and Democrats CNN has spoken to know a deal needs to be reached soon.

That was their attitude going into it Monday, and they felt optimistic that they could reach a deal in the early workday today… and we are seeing the reality of that happening as I speak right now…. For updates on that, you can visit thedohertyfiles.com

THE CHARACTERS IN THE STORY

Adison Mitchell McConell is the protagonist in The Stimulus package story… the only reason Chuck Schumer is not is because McConell provided the canvas for criticism in this new stimulus. McConell was quite perturbed on Sunday, to put it lightly.

  • Note: I feel like whenever any Senator(s) have to come in and negotiate/work on the weekends, they are just inherently a bit more angry… and that was confirmed this Sunday as McConell and Schumer squabble

To put it in simple terms, the entire point of these negotiations are to just show that the respective constituencies of these elected officials are represented through the helms of each of their parties — those helms being Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConell.

The Republicans are saying, in these endless and often purposeless negotiations, that the Democrat proposal is just a partisan way to squeeze little unrelated snippets of a biased agenda into their separate stimulus bill. Here is Mitch McConell after reading off a slew of Democrat miscellany that happens to be in this bill, one of which happens to relate to MCCONELL 2… hehe, Here’s Mitch… MCCONELL 1.

Meanwhile, The Democrats are saying that the Republican proposal focuses too much on bailing out corporate companies and not the average American… here’s Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer presenting that argument… SCHUMER 1.

Both of these are valid points… and, quite frankly, they could solve 70% of their problems if they just ditched those ideas in a mutual agreement. 

Republicans could also just partition $50 billion (or more) of their “other sectors”money into their taxpayer partition, reorganize the distribution of the money, and make everyone go home happy… but in Washington, they will lose efficiency as a result of stubbornness.

In this particular case, I think the Republicans should be more willing to compromise and The Democrats should be less partisans.

The Republicans could easily say… look, you’re right, Chuck, we don’t need to be giving a combined $200 billion to bailout corporate companies, a fourth of which going to a market who’s CEO salary among the top 4 companies in that industry is more than $11 million per year… we’ll just let the Fed keep their interest rates really low, so long as Jerry Powell is over there, so the airline companies can take out ridiculous loans that they will easily be able to pay back with the money that we gave to the average Americans who will begin to stimulate the economy and reinitiate the cycle… also, we would’ve taken a loan out regardless of whether or not you gave us this money…. That’s what I would be saying if I were an Airline Company CEO making $11 million.

The Democrats could also acknowledge their own distracting shortcomings in their bill with provisions that don’t even relate to COVID-19 that instead include a medley of unrelated goals like… MCCONELL 3


We could talk about specifics all day… the conclusion is that there is a common problem but not a common solution.. But there is a common need for one… and in order to have a functioning government, you have to be able to compromise so all three of those boxes are checked. 

Senate negotiators cite progress on coronavirus bill after day of drama and rancor

As seen on the newsletter….

FI: “Washington, DC – Capitol” by ComputerGuy – Wikipedia User is licensed under CC BY 2.0 

Jay Doherty

2020

Jay Doherty, Jr. 2019. All rights reserved.